I was in Washington, D.C. last week for the annual Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) convention and headed to Baltimore for the Orioles-Red Sox game Friday night. Checking out Camden Yards for the first time was a lot of fun, although it was sort of sad that Red Sox fans represented about two-thirds of the sellout crowd.
David Ortiz simply walking onto the field for pregame warmups got a far bigger ovation than either of the Orioles' homers off John Smoltz and the place just about exploded when Jacoby Ellsbury robbed Luke Scott of a long ball in the sixth inning. Of course, sitting right next to one of the loudest, most annoying Red Sox fans in the whole place probably didn't help my situation, but he was actually my roommate for the convention.
Anyway, the Orioles are headed for their 12th straight losing season and most of that ugly stretch has involved rosters full of overpaid, washed-up veterans, but watching the team in person got me thinking about just how well Andy MacPhail and company have set things up for the long haul. You wouldn't know it from their 44-61 record, but the Orioles have one of the best collections of long-term building blocks in all of baseball.
Adam Jones is hitting .302/.356/.501 as a 23-year-old center fielder, and he's flanked in the outfield corners by 25-year-olds Nick Markakis (.297/.353/.463) and Nolan Reimold (.281/.367/.462). Everyone knows all about 23-year-old Matt Wieters, who came into this season as the best prospect in baseball and top catching prospect since Joe Mauer. You won't find a better foursome of 25-and-under position players.
Pitching has been a huge problem for the Orioles this season, as the staff ranks 13th in the league with a 5.05 ERA, but 21-year-old right-hander Chris Tillman joined the rotation last week and his fellow stud prospect, 22-year-old left-hander Brian Matusz, will make his major-league debut tonight. Tillman and Matusz both have legitimate No. 1 starter potential, and 24-year-old David Hernandez has No. 2/No. 3 starter upside.
And the impressive collection of young talent doesn't end with the guys who're already in Baltimore, as prospects like Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder, Kam Mickolio, Zach Britton, Troy Patton, and Brandon Waring offer the Orioles plenty of second-tier options as the next wave to help fill in the gaps around Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Tillman, Matusz, and Hernandez.
Obviously stockpiling some great young building blocks and actually contending in the incredibly tough AL East are two very different things, but after more than a decade in the muck the Orioles have pulled themselves out and are in position to do some damage within the next couple seasons. Maybe one day Camden Yards will even be filled with more Orioles fans than Red Sox fans for a matchup against Boston.
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I think the Orioles have a long way to go to earn back the support of their fans. The owner of the team has mismanaged it for years and allowed them to stay mediocre. I wouldn't be surprised if those young players leave/get traded. If I were a player, there isn't any amount of money that would tempt me to stay in Baltimore for the long term.
Markakis is already signed long-term. Reimold and Wieters are in their first years and so still have 5 full years left. Due to shenanigans with service time Wieters might end up with 6. Jones has four more years (and I'm sure the team will talk extension eventually if he keeps it up). Tillman and Matsuz still have their entire six year control periods to use up.
Basically, my point is that these guys could be all ready to contend before free agency. Further, while I'm no PGA defender, he has been a lot better since he brought MacPhail on board, and willingness to spend money has never been his problem. Now that there is a smart baseball man spending it we could see real changes.
If you haven't been following the O's the last couple years you would have missed these things. I can't really blame you, since there's been little reason for even actual fans to tune in. But Andy MacPhail is not Syd Thrift or Beattie/Flanagan. I predict that the Orioles will live or die on the development of these young players, not on the mismanagement of an incompetent front office. And that's all I really ask for.
Brad Bergesen is not too shabby, either.
With all their young talent, what they need to do is sprinkle a couple of smart free agent signings to complement the young studs (and there are a bunch of studs) and they can contend in no time.
So who exactly will be playing infield for them?
I'm not sold on the Orioles' future, for a few reasons. The first is their terrible management structure.
The second is that their young talent still falls short of the Rays, and isn't all that much greater than either the Yankees or Red Sox who will still be able to buy all the talent they want.
Third, I think some of their players are a bit overrated. Nolan Reimold is a nice player and all, but he's pretty average in left, and is actually the oldest in the O's outfield and already in his prime years. He's basically already what he's going to be and there's not much projection left. Adam Jones reminds me way too much of Vernon Wells who had a few seasons, but his performance never matched his hype. Nick Markakis is a star, but his lack of power will limit him from becoming a super-star.
Lastly, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. For every Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo there's far more Daniel Cabrera's, Hayden Penn's and Adam Loewen's (not to mention the Ben McDonald's of the world). It seems that the Orioles always have a top pitching prospect or two in their organization, and yet the last type-flight starter they developed was Mike Mussina over two decades ago.
The AL East is also the last place you want to trust pitching prospects as even the best of the best like Clay Buchholz and David Price struggle. While others like Phil Hughes, Jon Lester and Joba Chamberlain take years that the Orioles don't have to develop.
It kinda boils down to that everyone in the AL East has bucket loads of young talent, but the Yanks, Sox and Rays have that talent already performing at the major league level, and (except for the Rays) have the payroll to acquire veteran talent as well.
LOL...Sabr convention? They actually have those? Sounds like a gathering of overweight, ugly white dudes who have an unhealthy obsession about their respective favorite teams, and for buffets!