I promise that this is my last Roy Halladay post of the day. Unless I'm inspired to write another, anyway. Anyway:
Peter Gammons: "Phillies must make trade for Halladay"
This would be the same Phillies team that is now 6.5 games up? I mean sure, he'd be nice to have around, but do you really mortgage the future for a marginal improvement in a race you already stand an excellent chance of winning easily? Gammons says in the article that "One player does make a huge difference," with the implication that in the postseason, having that ace could mean the difference between a championship or going home empty handed. History, however, doesn't bear that out.
The Brewers may have made the postseason because of CC Sabathia, but he didn't get them anywhere in the playoffs. Same with the Cubs and Rich Harden. Go back further and the story repeats itself with the 1987 Detroit Tigers and Doyle Alexander. Same goes for just about every team to trade for an arm at the deadline in recent history, because in the past 30 years, the only starting pitcher acquired midseason to win a World Series game was St. Louis' Jeff Weaver in 2006, and he was a salary dump. [CORRECTION: I forgot Joe Blanton last year, but I don't know that that changes anything]. Weigh all that against the guys who were traded away for those putative final pieces of the puzzle: John Smoltz, Jeff Bagwell, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek. The list goes on and on.
Sure, Halladay is a special talent. And yes, maybe it's a different calculus if the Phillies and Mets were locked in an epic battle for first place. But they're not. The Phillies, in all probability, are not going to have any trouble making the playoffs. Once they get there, fate will play a greater role in determining whether they repeat as champions than any one player's fastball.
It would be nice to have Roy Halladay. If the Jays decide to sell him at a bargan price you certainly make the deal. They are not, however, in a "must" situation with this, and to the extent Gammons or anyone else argues that they are, they're mistaken.
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As both a Phillies fan and a generally cynical observer of baseball, I tend to agree with you, Craig. But there are a couple additional considerations. First, the Phils have slugged their way to the top of the NL East (once again); their pitching has been well below mediocre (4.46 ERA, 13th in NL; 418 runs allowed, 8th in NL). In the playoffs, the pitching generally is better (if only because the Nationals, Pirates, Reds, etc., are excluded) and the Phils' bats may not be able to dominate in the same fashion. Second, the Phils are really constructed to win now and for the next two years. As a team built on hitting, they have to realize that their big bats (Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc.) are at or just past their peak today. The odds of these same guys whacking their way to the top of their division in 2012 are not good. To maximize the return from the (very substantial) investment the Phillies have made in them, it makes sense for a big-market team to make a move for a sound risk like Halladay in 2009 and 2010.
You know...I like Roy Halladay. I really do. But I'm beginning to wonder who exactly made him God all of a sudden. Honestly, I'm beginning to get sick of hearing the name.
Every word you say is correct, Craig. The only thing I might add is that no team should empty out their system for Halladay. The (now supposedly fictitious) trade proposed with the Mets is an example of an outrageously ridicuous idea, but is likely the minimum necessary to convince Ricciardi to deal him - which is why I don't think any trade will happen.
I don't know if it's so much that the Phillies have to get Halladay so much as they cannot allow the Dodgers to get Hallday.
The Dodgers won't get a player like Halladay. The delicate balance of the McCourt's finances will not allow an acquisition like this until the deferred money for Andruw Jones is paid off. At least Jason Schmidt should be off the books soon and then Juan Pierre's contract. So why does everyone think Colletti is so smart? I am confused.
Agreed, while the "in vogue (so-called) analysis" is trading Roy to the Phillies, the Phils bigger need is a secure "back-end" of the bullpen. Those guys would scare me if I was Phils fan.