That sound you hear is either the Nats screwing up the most important thing in the history of their franchise or Scott Boras screwing up Stephen Strasburg's career. Hard to tell which it is, really. Tom Boswell, who caught up with Strasburg in St. Louis yesterday, has the scoop:
Strasburg said that "I haven't heard from the Nationals" since he was drafted, other than receiving a minor league contract -- a technicality that prevents him from becoming a free agent . . . Strasburg seemed a bit perplexed by the lack of communication since the signing deadline is Aug. 17 and many other Nats draft picks are already under contract.
Accordng to Nats' president Stan Kasten, however, acting GM Mike Rizzo has been in "frequent contact" with Scott Boras. Which suggests either (a) that contact has been highly superficial, to the point where Boras isn't even telling Stasburg about it; or (b) there have been substantive talks and that Boras, in violation of just about any ethical rule you can think of, isn't keeping his client in the loop. When it comes to that guy your guess is as good as mine.
As Boswell notes, any team dealing with Boras and a high pick can expect him to make a big public show of it being insulted by the first offer, thus the caution. If I'm running the Nats, however, I try to short circuit all of that. I pick a number which I will truly not go beyond in signing Strasburg -- no lowballing, no gamesmanship -- just a number that I can tolerate as an owner but which I will not pay a penny beyond. Then I offer it. Politely, of course, with respect and all of that, while making clear -- in writing -- just how generous it is in light of every other deal every other draftee has ever signed. If he takes it, great. I have improved my team and signed the guy I wanted to sign at a price I know I can tolerate.
And if he doesn't take it? Well, in that case you can be assured that Boras will be talking through one of his favorite sock puppets all about it, publicly slamming the Nats. In response I would release the writing, note that we thought it was a fair offer, and wish Strasburg the best of luck and health in the Independent Leagues. If he doesn't blow out his elbow, I draft him again next year with my compensation pick.
Maybe such an approach will cause the Nats to overpay by a couple of million. But if they do it right they will not be paying more than they feel good judgment requires, they will circumvent a stupid and pointless Boras negotiation, they will show the fans that they aren't being pennywise and pound foolish and, best of all, they stand a pretty good chance of getting Stephen Strasburg signed and pitching before the end of the summer.
Take Boras' power away from him, Rizzo. Make him an offer he can, but shouldn't, refuse.
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I'm sure Rizzo will do the right thing if he's allowed to. But whether or not he's allowed to is up to the Lerner family....
I draft him again next year with my compensation pick.
Impossible. He would have to agree to be picked again by the same team.
The nationals know Strasberg is another one of those pitchers who can NOT turn around a franchise. Without a bullpen, the Nationals will not improve. So dealing with the Big Bad Boras Machine on a starting pitcher destined for elbow troubles with no hope to really improve the team just doesn't sound to appealing. I still expect them to sign him for more than they should and Mark Prior/Kerry Wood his elbow to death. Hopefully he last at least 5 years to see a better Nationals team than the one he will play for now.
or (c) he's lying.
Craig, the Nats wouldn't be able to draft Strasburg again next year without his permission, which I imagine he would not give.
dcfan, are you saying the Nats don't need a stud starting pitcher but some good relievers. One of those things is much easier to find than the other.
Forgive my ignorance, but is it teams can't draft the same player at all, or only use the same pick? If it's the former the Nats are screwed, but if it's the later they could always use next year's #1 to get Strasburg and use the #2 on Harper.
I am saying Strasburg could be just like Lincecum in SF and Holliday in Toronto (for all their bad years), great pitchers on bad teams dont improve the team. The Nats need bullpen help so much more than a power pitcher destined for arm troubles.
1) Lincecum's Giants are 10 games over .500, and the Blue Jays were a good team last year and aren't that bad this year.
2) "Great pitchers on bad teams don't improve the team." ?????
3) What gives you such insight into Strasburg's delivery to know that he's destined to have arm problems? Sure, young pitchers are always risky, but just because a guy throws hard does not mean he will run into injuries.
4) Strasburg has the potential to be 2-3 times as valuable as the very best relief pitchers in the game because of the innings he could eat. The Nationals need quality pitchers, period.
The Giants were BAD last year, when Lincecum won the Cy Young, or did you not know that. And the Blue Jays have had Holliday for 10 years now, and how many good teams? 1, last year? Exactly. I will say with a hard throwing pitcher arm troubles could be inevitable. It is true though, you just don't know for sure, let alone when and how bad. And top drafted pitchers have a history of not fairing well. I am hopeful he helps the Nationals, absolutely, but he will not be as important as a bullpen. The Nats blew so many leads in the first half its sickening. And to counter your one question, would you be so kind as to name any team in the history of modern baseball to go from worst team in the league to being a good team solely based on the perfomance of one starting pitcher? That defeats the concept of a team now doesn't it...?
Well, no reasonable person will say that a single player can turn a terrible team like the Nats into a good team. It's going to have to start with an accumulation of good players. The players that matter the most are position players and starting pitchers (relief pitchers are a distant 3rd, even though the Nats bullpen is indeed terrible).
There's a decent chance Strasburg could be a superstar, a more likely chance he'll be merely good, and a good chance he'll bust or ruin his arm. But I think you're being a bit too fatalistic in your prognosis of Strasburg's injury risk. There's definitely room for disagreement on the amount which the Nationals should offer this guy. However, Strasburg stands a good chance to end up as a highly valuable asset for a Nationals team that is in sore need of good, young players. It'd be idiotic to not try to sign him.
Hard throwing pitchers always have arm injuries? What? I guess that Nolan Ryan guy's career was pretty short... Oh and Randy Johnson... Oh and Zambrano always has arm problems... Oh and Felix Hernandez is constantly hurt... Hmmmmm
I did not say always. But Nolan Ryan stretched for 45 minutes before every game, even ones he didn't pitch, and im sure that helped him to last as long as he did. Randy Johnson takes great care of himself as well. I am saying a lot of hard throwing, cocky young players throw out their arm. Throw on a big contract, pressure to help the worst team in baseball, lack of experience in the minor leagues (don't be surprised if hes in a Nats uniform in September) could lead to a Mark Prior like downfall.
If Boras is involved, you can bet it will be drama. He's a jerk, nothing more, cares only for himself. ARod at least figured that out. Kudos to him.
Go up the road a bit young man, we would love to have you. You don't want to play for the Expos anyway.
If I were the Nats (and I am a Nats fan), I would offer Strasburg/Boras a 6 year deal totaling between $25-$27 million with a signing bonus of about $11 or 12 million. Put a cashier's check with that signing bonus on the table right in front of him. Tell them that is a fair and substantial offer and it will NOT go down. BUT, it will not INCREASE either. If he signs the contract, he'll instantly become a very rich young man. If he doesn't then the onus falls SQUARELY on Scott Boras as the "bad guy".
MJ - A team cannot draft the same player, no matter what draft position, unless that player gives his permission. If he says no, then they can't draft him, period. Which, if the Nats can't agree with him next year, I'd bet he won't give.
Why should Strasberg be "destined" for arm trouble? He arrived at SD State a fat kid who could throw hard. He is now 6'6" 225lbs and is striking out 11 for every walk. He has command of all of his pitches. Anyone can get hurt, but Tony Gwynn has had the best pitching coaches working with him. Most MLB scouts say he could step in tomorrow and be a #3 on most teams. If the Nats don't step up, he might wait until he is a free agent. Enough about Boras. He gets the best deals for his clients. The teams are the ones that agree to meet his price.
It's a plant, guys - how could everyone not see this. Boras told Strasburg to tell the media he hasn't heard from Washington. This puts a little added pressure on Washington to sign him or risk more embarrassment. Now Boras takes this and takes it to 8/15 11:59pm and uses it for full leverage.
Read Aaron Gleeman.......... Calcaterra SUX