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| Put 'em in Cooperstown
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Yesterday, Rob Neyer said this in the course of trying to identify the best catcher this decade:
So it's Posada vs. Rodriguez in a fight to the finish. And while the finish won't be until October of 2009, I have a hard time believing that Pudge can do enough in the next four months -- or has done enough with his glove and arm over the last nine seasons -- to make up for that 16-point gap in OPS+.
Ivan Rodriguez is going into the Hall of Fame. Posada isn't, and shouldn't; he just happens to have played the lion's share of his fine career in a single decade.
In response, Jonah Keri mounts a defense of Posada's Hall of Fame case:
Jorge Posada, to me, looks like a clear choice as one of the dozen best catchers of all-time . . . I absolutely think a [Hall of Fame] case can be made for Posada, even if he retired tomorrow . . . It's a shame that Posada can't elicit more enthusiasm for his accomplishments. Here's hoping, nine years from now, that the other voting members of the BBWAA are kinder to Posada than Rob will be.
It sort of kills things for me to know that Rob and Jonah are friends, because I think it would be fun to have a nasty fight over this. As it is, they'll probably just marshall evidence and arguments. Oh well.
In any event, I'm leaning more to Jonah's side of things here, though I don't agree that Posada would go in if he retired tomorrow. His case is really a Carlton Fisk-style case, and my sense was that people didn't truly appreciate Fisk as a Hall of Famer until the longevity portion of the argument really kicked in during his years in Chicago. Posada has no MVP awards like Rodriguez and was never the hitter Piazza was, but he has been a clearly above-average, and oftentimes excellent catcher who is aging well. He'll also get a bump for the World Series rings which, while not as important to a Hall of Fame case as many think it is, isn't unimportant. Mostly though, I think people will look back at the Yankees teams of the 90s and 2000s and ask themselves who is worthy of induction from that crew. Torre, Jeter and Rivera should be no-brainers. I think most will agree that more than just those three were responsible for the extended run of greatness. When looking to add a name or two to that list, Posada's is the best available in my view, and on that basis, he goes in.
Is that the most scientific reason for putting someone in the Hall of Fame? Nah. But if we've learned anything over the years it's that Hall of Fame voting isn't very scientific. I've grudgingly accepted that, so I think I'm entitled to use a little non-scientific argument of my own. On that basis, Jorge makes it.
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I think you summed up the argument against Posada's HOF chances when you said that "he has been a clearly above-average, and oftentimes excellent catcher who is aging well." Does that sound like the description of a hall of fame player?
But "clearly above-average" doesn't do him justice at all. He's hit like a first baseman while playing the catcher position. THAT is a Hall of Fame player. The only case against him is that he got started too late so he doesn't have the counting stats yet.
He doesn't hit like an elite first baseman. He doesn't even hit like Ivan Rodriguez, and he doesn't bring as much defensively as Rodriguez. Plus, he has had durability issues lately. Also, ask yourself this question: If Posada played for the Oakland A's or the Kansas City Royals, would he be a hall of fame player? Pasada's candidacy for the HOF will be boosted dramatically by the fact that he made many all star teams and was on television all the time because he played for the Yankees. I don't think Posada is a bad player at all. Clearly he is a very good catcher. I think he is worthy of the infamous, though imaginary, Hall of Very Good.
I won't deny that it's a close call, klbader, and I don't think it would be a grave injustice if he didn't make it. But I think I understated things when I said he was "an above average hitter." For a catcher he's been pretty astounding actually. Not Piazza level, but in terms of OPS+ he's clearly better than I-Rod over the course of his career and the equal of Roy Campanella (who, unfortunately, but to Posada's benefit in this argument didn't have a decline phase to his career to pull those numbers down).
I agree that durability going forward will be the key. Last year hurt, especially after how good he was in 2007 (and how good his bat remains when playing thus far in 2009). If he puts together a couple of full seasons, I think he has a strong shot. If he plays less than 100 games this year and then peters out due to injuries, probably not.
and Pasada didn't do steroids , like the new slim down Pudge.. people really shouldn't compare steroids stats to clean stats..........
Posada,Jeter, Mattingly, Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven.............
HOF is A JOKE,,,,,,,,
Of course Jorge Posada would be in the Hall of Fame if he played for another team, because he would still probably have around the same numbers. Also, Jorge is a switch hitterPeople get into the Hall of Fame because of their performance as a player, the statistics they produced in their career, not because of the team they happened to play for. And considering the circumstances, Jorge is an incredibly good catcher. He hits like an elite infielder because he WAS an infielder. Early in his career, he broke his leg and dislocated his ankle and therefor couldn't play the infield anymore, so he changed his career path and became a catcher. Pudge didn't have to learn a different position, he has always been a catcher. Since Jorge did, he has versatility. ( He has also played first base on some occasions for the Yankees.)
He doesn't have to hit like an "elite" first baseman...a catcher who hits like an average first baseman (which Posada has) over the course of a career is immensely valuable. He HAS been a better hitter than Ivan Rodriguez, and it hasn't been close.
Pudge was a blatant juicer and he won't get into the HOF. At least that's how it looks right now, none of these guys (McGwire, Palmeiro, Sosa, Bonds, etc.) are going to be able to get voted in. And don't tell me there's no proof...the evidence is in his sudden power increase and bulk, followed by his just as dramatic power dropoff and loss of body mass. For some reason this guy has been allowed to fly under the steroid radar. That will be corrected later if not sooner.
Sorry to change the subject, but what proof do you have for Sosa?
"proof?" Well...just his size and performance. When you get right down to it, we don't have "proof" of more than just a handful of guys. We don't really have "proof" that Bonds was juicing. Just a whole bunch of smoke, and a statistical record that defies 100+ years of statistical history. I'll say the same thing of Sosa, his 4-year homer binge (greatest in baseball history) cannot be explained by any other means, IMO. And, his size...dude got huge, seemed like overnight.
Well it's obvious and blatant because you say so? So analytical.
Besides, I'm really hoping that voters end up turning a blind eye to all of that in the near future. So many guys did it, some will never get caught. Many more that we don't know about now will be exposed in the future. Probably even some current or near-future Hall of Famers. I say let them all in. Because I say so.
U want PROOF on Bonds, look at his HEAD it has MUSCLES......
AND he was still GROWING after he left Pittsburg....... that ain't MILK
Posada- hall of fame? No way. He's not one of the best all time.
Kind of depends on how you view the Hall of Fame. There are 21 first basemen in the Hall of Fame. There are 18 second basemen. There are 23 shortstops. There are dozens and dozens of outfielders and pitchers. There are only 16 catchers (only third base is less represented), with Piazza and -- maybe -- Pudge to follow. Upshot I think catcher is underrepresented and I think that Posada is one of the 16-20th best catchers of all time (actually, I think he's one of the top 10-12). So, if you go by position anyway, I think he is one of the best of all time and commensurate with many players who have already been inducted.
But that's the thing about the Hall of Fame: there aren't any hard and fast right answers, and for the most part, one opinion is as good as another's.
Today's HOF relies on stats.
Review these:
Pudge: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriiv01.shtml?redir
Georgie: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/posadjo01.shtml
Ivan in, Jorge out.
After his playing days are over Jorge will have a nice life as manager of the Yankees.
as I said before, based upon Sosa's sudden statistical increase, and his blatant increase in size between seasons. Not because "I say so"....that's nonsense, your argument is not addressing what I wrote. Dude went from 36, 40 and 36 homers to, beginning in 1998, 66-63-50-64-49. That jump began when he was 31 years old-if you know your history, you know that players don't find a new high at that age, if they can maintain their previous peak they're doing great, but to jump 30 home runs in one season-what's YOUR explanation for his dramatic home run increase at the age of 31, hotshot?
corked bat?
In '96 Sosa hit his 40 homers in 124 games before a pitch broke his hand. He probably would've wound up around 50. It's also entirely possible that the injury either still bothered him in '97 or slowed his preparation for the season. I don't know whether he did PEDs or not, but that homer progression isn't terribly persuasive.
Using a corked bat indicates the lengths Sosa would go to to improve his performance, only difference is, he got caught with the bat, not the needle
I like Bernie better than Posada if you're reaching to add other Yankees from those 1996-2000 rosters. 2300+ career hits, 22 postseason ding dongs, and while CF isn't as demanding defensively at catcher, an 858 lifetime OPS in CF is nothing to sneeze at. I don't think either Bernie or Posada belong, but if you're going to make the argument...
If Posada is one of the top dozen or so catchers of all time, well, he certainly deserves consideration. I think the reaction of many was caused by Rob Neyer's declaring "he shouldn't." I'm not ready to say Posada Should be in the HOF, but I'm also not in the camp of "He Shouldn't." He's building his case and is getting close. If he can maintain a high level of production for a couple more seasons, then he'll make it. He doesn't seem to be slowing down. Too bad the Yankees started his career a couple years later, otherwise we probably wouldn't be having this discussion.
Posada and Bernie Wiliams shoud both go into the HOF... both were among the top players in their postion during their carrers with a habit of hitting in the cluth.
this man knows baseball.......
Neither Pudge or Posada have my vote....and look at the shrikage of Sosa's head....
Anyone who starts a sentence with the words, "If he played for Oakland or Kansas City..." cannot be taken seriously.
While his exact placement is up for debate, there can be NO debate that Posada is one of the 10-20 best offensive catchers of all-time. It will be interesting to see how heavily the BBWAA weigh stats like OPS+ against total hits and HRs. It could be the difference between Jorge being a Hall of Famer or not.
The criteria for HOF selection is so sketchy! Bill James lists Bill Freehan in his top 10 catchers of all time and says he belongs in the HOF. He likes Darrell Evans in the top 10 all-time third basemen, too. Debating it is the fun part.
Posada, while an excellent player, was not even the dominant catcher of his era. His skill set is not HoF quality....however, being a Yankee gives him an edge.
"not even the dominant catcher of his era."
That's nothing like a HOF criterion. I'd say Ivan Rodriguez wasn't the dominant catcher of his era either (Piazza was). You could say Derek Jeter isn't the dominant shortstop of his era, because A-Rod was much better. Mickey Mantle arguably wasn't the dominant CF of his era. Stan Musial wasn't the dominant LF of his era. And so on.
Whatever you think of his skill set, it's hard to look at his numbers against the list of catchers already in the Hall of Fame and justify keeping Posada out, Yankee or not.