There are some differences, Pedro wasn't left handed and he never had Johan's changeup. Just look at Jamie Moyer as a lefty who can live on his changeup until his later 40's even though he's topping out at 81mph on his fastball.

Pedro's circle change was every bit as good as Santana's, if not better.

Pedro also stopped working above 85 mph, and lost control of the strikezone. No command, no juice, no diggity, no doubt. But people who 'said that about Pedro' were correct.

Pedro's age-34 season was in 2005 with the Mets, he was pitching in the range described above for Johan, 88 mph fastball or so. 217 IP, 2.82 ERA, .95 WHIP.

I think Johan owners and Mets fans would take those numbers in Johan's age-34 season, in 2013. Pedro is a great righthanded comp for Johan, you are correct but not in the way that you intended.

I agree. This list is dumb. This guy must not pay attention to important facts. He has a college pitcher in the middle of the list who isn't even in the majors. Strasburg hasn't proved a thing. Jered Weaver was a great college pitcher and got off to a great start. Then he learned major league hitters adjust. Now Jered has learned how to get hitters out in the majors. This season is no fluke for him either. I knew he could pitch like this if he could develop a good outpitch or two. I guess he'll have to prove this guy wrong. He's definitely the ace of the Angels this year.

I'm sorry, but considering that this list is for the next five years from 2010 to 2014, no one has proved anything yet, seeing as 2010 hasn't arrived. Just because Steven Strasburg is still in college doesn't mean that he won't be filthy dominant from 2010 to 2014.

As for Jered Weaver, first learn to spell his name. Second, he probably should be on this list, but in the 30-50 range. He definitely has a ceiling. The only reason he's the "ace" of the Angels currently is because everyone else is either injured (Santana, Escobar, Lackey) or dead (RIP Adenhart). If those pitchers were around, Weaver would probably be the fourth pitcher on that team.

weaver might deserve to be on this list, though i agree with pouliot in keeping him off. his loud mechanics, injury history, combined with his decent, but not great, performance say to me that he's more of a number 3 starter than anything else. for those of you who say look at his ERA this year, his FIP is 3.76. his BABIP and strand rate also suggest that a regression to his career means are coming.

as for strasburg, there are many scouts who would consider pouliot's ranking to be too low. his fastball-slider combination compares similarly, and probably favorably, to A.J. Burnett's fastball-curve combination. Even if he never develops a changeup, he'd already have one of the best fastballs of a starting pitcher, and quite possibly the best slider. he also has excellent control. the only real downsides to strasburg are the size of his initial contract, and the ever-present risk of injury for a young pitcher.

strasburg may not have proved a thing at the professional level, but neither had mark prior coming out of USC. strasburg is considered at least as good a college pitcher (and probably even better) as prior was.

Agreed. If Greinke were pitching in a major media outlet (assuming all that pressure didn't get to him and he performed at this level) then you wouldn't be able to walk out your front door without getting hit in head by a front page Greinke headline. He'll probably have to wait for the All-Star game to get his due nationwide. He is simply the best there is right now.

I think Greinke has gotten his fair share of attention. He's had a great first half of the season so far, but again this list is about the next five years, not the past two months. Greinke is young, so he'll be able to physically dominate for the foreseeable future, but can he mentally handle it?

Remember Greinke was basically out of baseball for most of 2006 due to depression and emotional issues. That means he's got added risk above and beyond your standard pitcher. It also raises the question of whether he could actually handle the spotlight? Is he able to dominate because he's facing almost not pressure while pitching for an pretender like the Royals?

David Price is a young stud in the making, and the Rays are doing everything in their power to keep him healthy. This should be cause for much rejoicing. I shall kill and prepare a mutton to feed Rays' management to keep them strong and protecting young pitchers.

If you're going to make a list of the best pitchers for the next five years, there are going to have to be some guys with high potential who haven't 'made it yet.' Your argument holds no water, and as such you need a better, stronger bucket to haul water in.

It wasn't my argument. I was quoting the author's argument for why Joba Chamberlain was only in the 30's and not higher in the list. Apparently potential isn't good enough for Chamberlain but is good enough for Price. Or maybe it's because writers find cheap page views when they keep rehashing the Joba-to-the-bullpen argument, when their "logic" makes as little sense for Joba as it does for a very similar pitcher in David Price.

As for "protecting" young pitchers, I definitely believe in some protection. We don't want too many more Mark Priors, however, I think the Rays are currently going to the other extreme. When they limit David Price to only 75 innings a start, how do they ever expect him to gain the stamina to become a real starting pitcher and go deep into games? He's got to do it sometime. Hell, just look at Scott Kazmir. He's another young pitcher the Rays overprotected, and now he's got all the potential in the world but he can never use it since he's basically a 6-inning pitcher with a 160-170 inning cap each season, and that's when he's even healthy. At some point to get the value in your young pitchers with potential you have to let them actually pitch.

I don't consider Joba and Price to be very similar pitchers at all. They're both very talented, started their major league careers in the bullpen, and have a fastball and slider as their two best pitchers. After that the similarities end. Joba is a high-effort pitcher with questionable mechanics. He also has a fairly significant injury history. Finally, he has struggled to develop a consistent 3rd pitch to his fastball and slider. Price, on the other hand, has smooth mechanics that suggest a long, healthy career. This observation is backed up by the fact that he's never had any significant injuries. In addition to his fastball and slider, Price also has a decent changeup and a developing curveball. As a result, I agree with Pouliot that Price is better equipped to have a successful major league career. All that being said, I did rank Price a good deal lower in my own list.

As for the pitch limits set on Price, I think they'll be gradually raised so that he can work deeper in games. Price only pitched 123.2 innings last year, and the last thing the Rays want to do is accelerate his inning totals too fast. At 162 games, it's already a long season, and the Rays want to be able to use Price with as little restriction as possible should they make the playoffs.

I don't think the Kazmir comparison is a very good one at all. First, Kazmir has a violent delivery that is one reason he has been injured so much in his career. Second, even when he hasn't been on pitch count restrictions, his erratic control has prevented him from working deeper into games. Finally, despite his poor control and violent mechanics, the Rays allowed him to pitch 206.2 innings in 2007. I'd hardly consider that "overprotecting" him.

To Pouliot's credit, he stated he doesn't think it's time for Joba to go to the pen. It is still worth discussing for reasons other than page-views, however, given that he's walking more than a batter per two innings and his WHIP is an unsightly 1.57. The ERA you enjoy so much is worth little as a statistic, and will probably follow the WHIP up the ladder.

Chamberlain's maturity has left a lot to be desired, he has no respect in baseball for the way he has conducted himself on the field. We may have a case brewing here of 'billion dollar arm, 10 cent mind.'

Argh. Jon Broxton is on the list. Mariano Rivera will be tending his garden in five years, you should pay more (bring it up to 'a little') attention if you want to comment.

bwahahahahahaha

I think he's got some work to do to catch up with Cy Young…

Cy Young and Roger Clemens are tied for first with 192.  Wakefield has 170.  He could pass him next year.

I guess the Red Sox have done so much losing throughout their history that it doesn't really take all that much to win more than most ;-)

Yeah, the logic surrounding the Joba-to-the-bullpen debate has never really made sense. Critics are now claiming that since he's only throwing 91mph as a starter, if he was converted to the bullpen he'd magically be throwing 98mph again. However, what they fail to realize is that when Joba was starting last year he was still hitting 95-96mph. So there's obviously something wrong with his arm, and moving him to the bullpen probably means he'll touch 93mph. He just needs to either work through his arm problems (which it looks like he is, since he's been hitting 95-96 this very night), or if something is more serious then he needs to go on the DL and rest up.

that's a good point about joba's velocity as a starter this year versus last year.

in 2008, his average fastball velocity was 95.0.

so far this year, it's at 92.3

i haven't noticed anyone jumping ship on joba. it just seems to me that the hype has died down considerably. i don't know anyone who follows the game that thinks joba's lost any potential as a starting pitcher.

as for garza, he definitely could've used the time in the minors when he was up for his first 21 starts. in all of 2006 and most of 2007, he rarely got his fastball over for strikes, let alone any of his other pitches.

So I'm not so certain that Joba was throwing 95-96 last night. The radar gun had him at that velocity consistently, but then it also had Mariano Rivera at 97mph. Rivera hasn't thrown 97 in years, so I think that gun was a tad high.

That all said, last night was a good sign in that Joba was able to go deep into the game, 8 innings, mainly because he was efficient. He only struck out 5 over those 8 innings, but on the other hand he only walked 2 and needed only 106 pitches to get through those 8 innings. I was almost hoping the Yanks would bring him out for the ninth to continue to build up his stamina, but 8 was certainly good enough.

He's not a free agent for at least the next three years, maybe even more. I think the Japanese system takes eight years to reach free agency. So if that's true, he basically won't be in major league baseball until the tail end of our five year period.

Just because Lincecum never had an arm injury doesn't mean that he won't in the future, but I get your point. That all said, I actually liken Lincecum to Roy Oswalt, and Oswalt has been pretty much the picture or pitcher health these past few years, so Lincecum could certainly be fine.

As for the 130 pitches, well, the flawless mechanics of Mark Prior weren't even enough to save him from the damage of throwing over 130 pitches a few too many times far to early in his career.

Now there's nothing wrong with savvy vets throwing 120-130 pitches pretty regularly. Actually, that's pretty much the ideal. But younger pitchers are still developing and that workload can have ill effects on their health.