Yesterday afternoon, while the White Sox were waiting to hear if Jake Peavy would accept a trade to Chicago, the Twins handed them a 20-1 thrashing that tied for the most lopsided loss in franchise history. Joe Mauer led the Minnesota attack, going 3-for-4 with a grand slam, two doubles, and six RBIs before an early exit.
Mauer missed all of April with a back injury, but has hit .417/.500/.819 in 19 games since coming off the disabled list. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, Mauer would lead baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. He's such an amazing hitter that batting .417 or getting on base at a .500 clip over a three-week stretch probably shouldn't surprise anyone, but eight homers and five doubles in 72 at-bats is totally unexpected.
Prior to this season Mauer had one homer every 46.8 at-bats and an Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .140. So far this year he has one homer every 9.0 at-bats and an Isolated Power of .402. Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Mark McGwire are the only players in baseball history who've had a season in which they homered more than once every 9.0 at-bats and posted an Isolated Power above .400.
In other words, the 26-year-old two-time batting champion, career .320 hitter, and Gold Glove catcher whose only real flaw has been mediocre power is suddenly driving the ball like three of the greatest power hitters in baseball history. Naturally fans in Minnesota are giddy about the idea of Mauer adding 30-homer power to his already amazing all-around game and even my initial skepticism is starting to fade a bit. But not totally.
Mauer hasn't become more aggressive by abandoning his ultra-patient approach at the plate and he isn't suddenly pulling the ball consistently. Instead he's still taking tons of pitches and going the the other way with most of the pitches that he decides to swing at, but the fly balls to left and center field just seem to be traveling a little further. All of which makes me think that he's probably not turning into a slugger in front of our eyes.
I'd love to be wrong, of course, but what Mauer is doing seems similar to what Wade Boggs did back in 1987. Boggs then, like Mauer now, was an amazing hitter with an exceptional eye at the plate who posted huge OBPs while being criticized for his lack of power. Through his first five seasons Boggs hit .352/.435/.463 and won three batting titles, but averaged just six homers. In his sixth season, Boggs went off for 24 homers.
Through his first five seasons Mauer hit .317/.399/.457 and won two batting titles, but averaged just eight homers. In his sixth season, Mauer seems well on his way to 24 (or more) homers. Of course, the Mauer-Boggs comparison isn't a perfect one. Mauer has already shown more power than Boggs and he's just 26 years old, whereas Boggs was 29 years old in 1987. That certainly makes him more likely to suddenly develop big-time power, but the situations definitely seem similar.
After his out-of-nowhere power display in 1987, Boggs went back to hitting just five homers the next year, never homered even half that many times again, and finished his Hall of Fame career with single-digit homers in 16 of 18 seasons. Will Mauer follow in Boggs' footsteps, perhaps going deep 25 times this year before settling back into the 10-homer range for the rest of his career? Twinsfandom aside, I'm incredibly curious to find out.
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Good comparison. Interesting stuff. Looking at one of my favorite tools www.hittrackeronline.com shows some interesting stuff. First 5 of his HR have been to the opposite field and the other 3 to dead center, so he isn't pulling for the dingers as you suggested. Half have come at home in the Metrodome where HR are hard to come by and half in two of the best HR parks in the country, the new Yankee Stadium and US Cellular (CWS). Hittracker lists just 3 of them as "Just enough" and the rest as "plenty" none are "lucky" meaning he hasn't been aided by wind or other such influences in getting the ball out.
My guess is that his new power is somewhat real and he will be somewhere in between the two extremes. This season he may hit 20+ but I think he will be a 10-20 HR guy for the next four or five years with a little added power in the way of doubles. Unless he moves to 1B sometime, which is unlikely right now, I think catching will slow his power down later in his career. Developing power with experience is a common trait for patient hitters, but these rates are probably due to a small sample size
Well, with the evidence mounting that the ball (or something) is different this year, it's not so surprising that a doubles hitter like Mauer would see more of his drives carrying over the fence. It only takes a few extra feet on each fly ball to make a huge difference.
There was research done that showed a positive correlation between ISO and the percentage of homers a player hits to the opposite field. The explanation is pretty straightforward: players without much power have to pull the ball to get it out whereas true power hitters can drive it out to all fields. Mauer is sort of an exception that proves the rule. Even the best power hitters hit most of their homers to the pull side, and Mauer has been extraordinarily unwilling to do sothis. Roberto Clemente was similar in this regard. Both players had the ability to hit 30-40 homers a year, but chose to focus on contact instead.
I'd be inclined to say that, insofar as it's a conscious strategy, Mauer's approach is a suboptimal one. But it's borderline nuts to argue with the results. Even as a gap hitter, he's incredibly valuable. If he's found a way to add 20-homer power without sacrificing any of his other skills...DEAR LORD. The AL MVP will be called the Mauer Trophy when his career's over.
What evidence is there that the ball, or something else, is "different" this year? Is it that home runs are up? Why can't it just be that home runs are up?
Ron Coomer, former MLB player and Twins TV analyst, did a frame-by-frame breakdown of Mauer's swing during a MSP radio appearance this week. The Coom-Dawg is certainly no hitting guru. But he essentially explained Mauer's sudden power explosion as a change in the way Mauer lifts and plants his front foot and a change in the way he turns his body into a pitch. It increases power.
I'm one of those giddy Twins fans, but I agree that the power probably isn't too real. As noted, his homeruns have all been to center or to the opposite field (though he did come close to pulling one out in the White Sox game). Also, his swing hasn't changed at all since he's been back. It's still a beautiful line drive stroke that generates backspin, but it's not a swing that generates a lot of lift. Perhaps the newfound power can be attributed to gains made in the weightroom. Unfortunately, I think it's more likely that the power surge Mauer is experiencing will dwindle.
Very good article with one exception. I think Boggs sudden power surge in 1987 might have something to do with the " Jucied Baseballs " rumored to have been used that year. 1987 was most definitely the year of the Homerun with lots of HR records being broken that year. Mauer's sudden surge of power sure is baffling but at the same time very welcomed since i stole him in the late rounds of my fantasy draft. Hopefully we get this guy DH-ing soon and we can get 162 games of Mauer all year!!!
Steroids?
It was only a matter of time...
Don't bring up moving Mauer out from behind the plate to Gleeman. He doesn't like it.
An issue I have not read in this discussion online is a consideration of how his rehab from his back injury might have affected the power of his stroke.
As someone who has returned from a back injury I can assure you that the core strength work you do in rehab can provide a surprising increase in strength. For a batter who is transferring power from the legs through the core and out the arms a significant increase in core strength should have a noticable effect on swing power.
Mauer must be juicing. A dramatic surge in power after he has averaged 8 HR's per year over the last 5 years ? Come on guys!!
Yes, he is doing all that knowing that he can't possibly get away with it. Get real.
Mauer has definitely added another element to his game and has been stroking balls to opposite feild all season. ("stroking balls" felt strange while typing). Nevertheless, as long as he stays healthy, he will win the AL MVP, the batting title, a gold glove and without a doubt make the Canadian born Morneau look like more of a stud than he really is. Mauer is not juicing, he has always had the talent. The fact that Mauer has come out of the gates like this without anyone so much as blinking an eye says enough.
Mauer juicing? Kind of a ridiculous, don't you think? These guys are tested too often to be under the illusion they can get away with that. I thought Blair's comment @ 2:59 might have something to do with it, but it ain't juicing.
Better ride him high while he avoids the DL!
How many games did he catch last year? Ignorant comment
Mauer has always had the talent? The talent for hitting for average yes, but for power no. He has NEVER been a power hitter, NEVER. This guy is on serious GH, post back treatment, and he's enjoying the ride. Let's get real guys, this guy averaged 8 homers per year not over a 2 year period, but over a FIVE year period. Joe Mauer and juice power, Mauer power!!
Considering how many times these players are tested? YOU get real.
If Mauer continues his juiced power march he will be a serious MVP candidate this year, but his prior MVP candidacies have been a result of him being overrated. Yes, he won 2 batting titles, but while averaging 8 HR's per year over a 5 year period he's been a singles and doubles hitter and NOT a run producer. Pudge Rodriguez in his prime, though he didn't win batting titles, exhibited more power and run producing capabilities, while winning a million gold gloves and only received serious MVP consideration perhaps one or twice during his Hall of Fame career. I'll take Pudge in his prime over Mauer anyday.
You know much less than you think you do. Getting on base is the single most important thing for a hitter to do, and Mauer is one of the best in the league at doing so. Pudge's career high OBP, despite playing in an offense-oriented era, in a bandbox of a park, was .383. Mauer's career OBP is nearly 20 points better than that.
Don't get me wrong, both are Hall of Fame caliber players, but calling Mauer overrated is almost offensively ignorant. A catcher who can get on base at a .400 clip while providing doubles power is a perennial MVP candidate. The sooner you realize that, the better.
Pudge Rodriguez won 13 Gold Gloves and was an All Star 14 times. Apart from 1999 when he won the AL MVP with a monster year the best he ever finished in the MVP voting was 10th. Mauer already has 2 top 10's in MVP balloting and the way the media loves this guy he'll be in the top 5 or 10 regardless of what he does. Mauer is a media darling and is enjoying the hype the media creates for him. And don't even begin to compare Mauer to Pudge when it comes to durability and speed out of the catchers position.
I'd rather have Mauer! Hes more of an athlete.
His high school coach - taken from here - read this its good!
But Mauer's obsession with being a contact hitter was limiting him until this year, O'Neill says.
"We pretty much had to make him try to hit home runs. I said, 'Joe, everybody else pops up once in a while. Take a shot.' "
When he did, Mauer tied a national record with homers in seven consecutive games.
111111
Paul- good points. It does seem there is a juiced ball this year and I was shocked at how his HR were mostly to the opposite field. I figured he'd started pulling more early in the count fastballs.
I don' think Mauer is using PED's but to claim that the high testing rate is the thing stopping any player is naive. Like computer hackers, the juicers are usually one step ahead of the curve. After all no one gets tested more than olympic athletes and juicing is rampant there. Most likely the ball and the HR parks have helped him, but I still think he might have added a bit more pop.
In another era, Mauer would already have an MVP. These days SS and CF get tons of credit in the MVP race for their gloves, but catchers have to be both exceptional hitters and good glove men to get consideration. Mauer's OBP has been more responsible forMMorneau's MVP votes than anything else- which is why RBI's are not a great tool for evalutating hitters. I'd take Mauer of I-Rod in his prime anyday. Even on steroids, Rodriquez was at best an average hitter.
Mauer's a better athlete? Hilarious. Mauer is a sloth, while Pudge was probably the fastest, most agile catcher ever. While Pudge has been an average hitter for a catcher over the last 3-4 years he's been a great hitting catcher when you look at his career. He has to be among the top catchers for all time hits, he is a Hall of Fame lock, while Mauer has a long way to go to be Hall of Fame material.
So, Pudge hit in a bandox of a stadium. Pardon me, but doesn't Mauer play on turf, where grounders scrorch their way through the infield and in a stadium that is called "The Homerdome"???!!!!
I'm obviously not expecting anything resembling a coherent argument from you, but could you at least try looking things up?
The Metrodome is referred to as "The Homerdome?" Good for the Metrodome. Its home run park factor is right around league-average. Frank Baker's nickname was "Home Run," and he hit 96 of them in his 13-year career. But I'm sure you already knew at. You are, after all, quite the baseball expert. What baseball university did you go to? Was it the one where they teach you everything there is to know about the game? I thought so!
As to Pudge's career numbers: no argument here. They're very good. They're extremely good for a catcher. But Mauer's are better. He just blows Pudge out of the water when it comes to getting on base, which is, as you're well aware and have presumably taught students in your Baseball Science class, the most important thing a hitter does.
Mauer a sloth???
I'm not going to compare who's a better athlete because I have no idea. But to say Mauer is a sloth is stupid. The guy was All-State in football, basketball and baseball in high school, Florida State gave him a full ride to play quarterback in college, and he was the number 1 overall draft pick by the Twins.
I understand you're trying to make a point but get real.
Matt says that in another era Mauer would have won an MVP. Pudge's era is only a few years removed from Mauer's. It's not like Pudge played 30-40 years ago, and the game has changed so much. Outfielders and SS's have always gotten credit in ANY era throughout the history of MLB. Catchers have to be good glove men? Did you forget Pudge's 13 Gold Gloves? I don't know why I'm even entertaining this ridiculous debate when in the end Mauer will NOT have the durability necessary to compare his career to Pudge. Mauer will break down, as he has already in his few years of service, and in his case it's the back, which will only get worse. Mauer is a great catcher, but he is overrated.
"Mauer is a great catcher, but he is overrated."
Kind of a self-defeating statement, isn't it?
Overrated? The guy won 2 batting titles. Are u serious? On top of it he developed power. This guy is a monster. More like Underrated. Start watching him a little more, your opinion will change quick.
Overrated is one of the easiests things to claim. All you have to do is prop up a strawman that "someone" claims that a player is the "best ever" and then point out that they aren't as good as Ruth, Gibson or Mays. There, almost anyone can be "overrated". Q.E.D.
CalJoe sounds pretty insecure about I-Rod's place in history if he has to rush in with insults every time someone has anything nice to say about another catcher. Don't worry, Cal, Pudge will get his plaque, no matter how good or bad Mauer plays.
Mauer's a better athlete? Hilarious. Mauer is a sloth...
I don't usually reply to ridiculous statements, but this one's for you CalJoe.
Joe Mauer is the only athlete ever to be named USA Today's High School Athlete of the Year in 2 sports; football and baseball.
Mauer's football accolades include: Gatorade National Player of the Year, Parade's Player of the Year, Reebok/ESPN High School All-American, and "National High School Quarterback Of The Year" by The National Quarterback Club. By the way he lead his high school team to a state championship title, and turned down an offer to play quarterback for FSU.
In basketball he was named "All-State" twice and lead his high school team to a state title.
I don't even need to list Mauer's baseball resume. Clearly the man is a "sloth" CalJoe. Great analysis.
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You're forgetting an important point, though, Spyder: Maeurs' overated cuz he cant even hit teh homers like Pudge could and hes great but PUdge was so much better. And hes slow and he cant even beat Pudge in a race I bet. Plus one time Pudge like totally stole Mauers girlfreind and he was too much of a puss to get her back.
If anyone thinks Mauer is a sloth....pull up that video of Mauer saving a walk-off victory in Yankee stadium with that play where he beat Brett Gardner in a foot race with a diving tag at home plate. As a Twins fan, I've always been so so on Mauer...but that play alone has made him a favorite. You can find the video on MLB.com twins site under "Mauer's Amazing Play."
Aaron, this is the most ridiculous article I have ever read.... I apologize for being so blunt but saying that Mauer's HR's to Right and Center just seem to be traveling a little further is asinine. Obviously the ball is traveling farther, I just don’t understand where he’s all the sudden going to lose is power? I’m not saying I disagree with you, but if you’re going to write an article, at least have valid reasoning backing your opinion, not "The ball seems to travel a little further." Seriously, I’ve read your other articles and there pretty good, but this was BAD. The Boggs comparison isn’t bad but again, Mauer is only 26 and can certainly have 30 HR power. Also, a month into his season the comparison is unwarranted to Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth and Mark Maguire. Aaron, I respect you, but you need to go back to the drawing board on this one and re write this.
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I wonder if his back was hurting more than we knew about last year. He's a big strong guy, who seems capable of more power than he's shown. I had come to accept that his compact swing and going with the pitch might mean he wouldn't ever be a slugger. But what if it was just back pain limiting him? Maybe calming down the SI joint was all he needed to unleash the beast!
Which player would you say is faster?
Stolen bases before 26th birthday:
Player A: 26 out of 41 attempts
Player B: 30 out of 36 attempts
Player A is Pudge Rodriguez. Can you guess who Player B is?
CalJoe, remember that Rodgriguez juiced too. Maurer has never been suspected of anything like that. Pudge was a great catcher. But let's wait awhile before we crown him greater then Maurer. Ten years from now we can look at things and do a reasonable comparison. For my money, I'd take Maurer anyday.
Mauer hands down. No questions asked. As to the "juicing" comments, get real. He has no reason to do so. This power surge may end up being a flash in the pan, but remember that because of his large frame, he was projected to be more of a power hitter than he has been. I like the idea that the core training to recover from the SI injury has added this extra power. We all know that most of your power comes from the legs and core. As to Pudge being better than Mauer, that has yet to be seen. I'm pretty sure I'd take Mauer any day, though.