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| Can Juan Pierre replace Manny? Well, no.
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Stepping back from all the headline-grabbing hoopla for just a moment, what exactly does Manny Ramirez's 50-game suspension actually mean for the Dodgers on the field?
Believe it or not, that's the one aspect of this story that we can get a pretty firm handle on immediately.
Ramirez has hit .380 with a .490 on-base percentage, .710 slugging percentage, 23 homers, and 73 RBIs in 80 games since joining the Dodgers last season.
Obviously keeping up that type of torrid pace is extremely difficult, but if we assume for a moment that Ramirez would have continued to hit like that during the 50 games he'll be suspended it would have been worth 25-30 runs more than a replacement-level hitter.
The "replacement-level hitter" tag is important, because Ramirez's primary fill-in is expected to be Juan Pierre and his .291/.332/.345 line in 1,168 plate appearances since joining the Dodgers two years ago is almost exactly replacement level. In other words, if the Dodgers were to give all 50 of Ramirez's missed starts to Pierre it would cost them 25-30 runs offensively (assuming both players hit like they have so far in Los Angeles).
Of course, while the move from Ramirez to Pierre is a massive downgrade offensively it's also likely a sizable upgrade defensively. My conservative estimate is that the difference between Ramirez and Pierre in left field for 50 games would be worth at least five runs, which takes a chunk out of the runs lost offensively. Add it all up and losing Ramirez for 50 games while replacing him with Pierre figures to cost the Dodgers around 20 runs.
Throughout baseball history 10 runs gained or lost has generally been worth one win, which means Ramirez's suspension projects to knock two wins off the Dodgers' total. That may not seem like a tremendous amount, but they won the division by exactly two games last season and that's a six- or seven-win pace over the course of an entire season.
Fortunately for the Dodgers they've already built up a 6.5-game lead over the Giants and an 8.5-game lead over the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres in an NL West division filled with some very flawed teams. Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco, and San Diego have combined for a 48-60 (.444) record thus far after winning 82, 74, 72, and 63 games respectively last season.
Ramirez made a huge impact in 53 games with the Dodgers last season and has been the driving force behind their MLB-best 21-8 start this season, but the rest of the team is strong enough and the rest of the division is weak enough that there's a very good chance Los Angeles will still be holding a multiple-game lead when he returns on July 3.
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That's like asking how many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop........A One.......A ta-woooo.....A thrrr--eeeee...........Crrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrunch!
:)
I hope it costs them the entire season.
"Manny Ramirez suspended 50 games for drugs. Dodger star tests positive for banned substanance." I'm so tired of listening to people make excuses for this behavior. He should be booted out of baseball period. But no ----- everybody wants to save the team!! Well the owners should have thought about that ahead of time. Atheletes are paid too well for this "thumb to the nose" attitude and they are role models for our young. They should be dismissed and make room for those that are virtuous of the position.
Very analytical and logical. The one thing that I think may hurt the Dodgers just as much if not more is that all of the hitters kind of orbit around Manny's production. I think it's a symbiotic relationship that will be hard to quantify and will only be evident after a week or two without their key hitter. There's a certain intimidation factor that seems to suck the momentum out of opposing pitchers and a beneficial sense of well being that ties the rest of that line up together. It's not like the rest of the Dodgers line up is nothing with out him but he sure relieves a lot of pressure on the rest of the guys. Manny is the new Barry Bonds. There will be a gaping hole in that line up, Either, Kemp, Loney, Hudson, Furcal and the rest will have to keep up the solid start that they have al gotten off to, but we have to realize that Manny was the activating agent in the mix, the reason that these guys saw the quality pitches to hit. Maybe Either can be that guy for the time being, I think that Manny's loss will ultimately be greater than just two games when all is said and done.
Two to three wins lost seems about right for the 50 game suspension. This is a team whose biggest strength is their pitching. On the hitting side, they have been hitting a lot of extra base hits. I look for a little more return to small ball, the bunting, the hit and run, etc. Without Manny in the lineup, a probable lineup is:
Furcal
Hudson
Ethier
Kemp/ Martin
Loney
Martin/ Kemp
Blake
Pierre
Moving Kemp or Martin to cleanup allows the lineup to alternate lefties and righties until Martin and Blake. I could also see them going with a Pierre , Furcal, Hudson beginning of the lineup, but Pierre's OBP could make this a more damaging move in the long run. The lineup won't strike quite the fear into others that it would with Manny, but it should be adequate, and still above par compared to other NL West lineups. From a fantasy perspective, big bump up for Pierre and a possible uptick for Martin or Kemp, whomever moves up in the lineup. Ethier will see a dip in BA, but will keep his OBP similar, as pitchers try to nibble the corners rather than going right after him. Pierre was their most playable player on the bench. An additional injury offensively could have a higher impact on this team. Overall, the bigger question, how does this affect the team psyche? With the lead they've built up, they should be able to maintain first place, but their lead may dwindle slightly by Manny's return in July.
So far I've heard a lot of statistical analysis. Bottom line is their in Big trouble. Billingsley is pitching over his head right now and the dodger offense feeds off of Manny. That symbiotic relationship between Manny and the offensive production from the rest of the line up is right on. Without him you lose A LOT!!!!!!! There is no statistic to put on a players presence in your lineup. Think about it, remember when you were in high school or little league when you had that game changer on your team. You knew it, you could feel it, you knew you were going to win. Thats the psychological part that no stat can address. This loss is huge and without Manny the Dodgers fall right into the laps of the National League West. They certainly aren't a cellar dweller without him but this team is mediocre in a mediocre division. Congratulations Sabean you recieved an early gift, now make something happen with it......
Who in the national league west is still going to beat us? They all suck and don't tell me there are not guys on the padres, diamondbacks, giants doing steriods they just haven't gotten caught yet please. Something has to change. I am a long time Dodger Fan and still am a big fan of Manny and when he returns we'll be just fine. We still have a pretty good line up and I have faith in Joe Torre to get us through this. It won't be easy but we'll survive. We still have accomplished 11 in a row at home they can't take that away. It's a team effort not one guy!
Female fertitlity drugs?!!! Is that just Manny being Tranny?