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| Washburn will love the Mariners' new outfield
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As a big Ichiro Suzuki fanboy I'm looking forward to his scheduled Wednesday return for many reasons, but most of all I'm excited to see exactly how great Seattle's outfield can be defensively. With a healthy Ichiro joining Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez the Mariners can trot out three above-average center fielders in spacious Safeco Field.
According to Ultimate Zone Rating, Gutierrez's defense has been 22 runs better than the average center fielder per 150 games, while Ichiro is at +8 and Chavez is at +10. Of course, only Gutierrez will actually be playing center field for the Mariners, and both Ichiro and Chavez have been even better in the corners. UZR rates Ichiro as 11 runs above average per 150 games in right field and Chavez as 22 runs above average per 150 games in left field.
In other words, a Chavez-Gutierrez-Suzuki alignment figures to be something like 50-60 runs above average over the course of an entire season, which is truly extraordinary. If the Mariners' pitching staff suddenly improves upon last year's 4.73 ERA despite losing J.J. Putz and not adding any world-beaters, the three guys running down everything in the gaps will be the No. 1 reason.
In particular Jarrod Washburn figures to benefit more than anyone else. Washburn is among the league's most extreme fly-ball pitchers and has one of the league's lowest strikeout rates, which means a ton of fly balls are put in play against him. Last season he went 5-14 with a 4.69 ERA in 153.2 innings while 31 out of every 100 balls put in play against him fell for hits.
That rate was well below par for a fly-ball pitcher and about 10 percent worse than his career mark. Washburn is now a year older and hasn't gotten any less mediocre, but don't be surprised to see all kinds of stories about his big comeback season popping up in a couple months because many of the 42 doubles and 109 singles that he allowed in 2008 are suddenly going to find gloves this time around.
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Here's a situation where statistics can very much lie. Statistics really only tell a story if you give them context, and you've removed too much context to tell your story.
First off, Gutierrez center field defensive numbers may come out to 22 runs better than average over 150 games, but guess what, at this point in time over 150 games Nick Swisher would hit 64 home runs and bat .450, and this isn't even starting to get into what kind of pitcher he'd be since his career MLB ERA is 0.00. But Nick Swisher isn't going to hit 64 home runs, nor is he a .450 hitter, and he may never see the mound again. What is happening is that small sample sizes are creating a picture that may or may not be true. Gutierrez has never saved 22 runs in center field over 150 games because he's never played 150 games in center field. Gutierrez has all of 36 games, 22 starts, in center to his credit over his entire major league career. Small sample size can really help statistics lie. That's why polls survey at least 1000 people, and not just 10. In order for statistics to even begin to mean anything, they need a significant sample.
Small sample size even affects the supposed 22 runs Endy Chavez will save. Now he's at least got 182 games in left field to his credit, though only 76 of them were starts.
As for Ichiro, he does have a nice large sample at right field, 989 games with 976 starts in right. However, the large portion of those games took place over two years ago. During 2006, Ichiro was converted to center where he found himself playing exclusively in 2007 and half of his 2008. Now why is it important to recognize that most of those right field starts were a while ago? Well, because as a player ages, his fielding ability is often one of the first tools to go, especially in the outfield where speed is such a key. Now Ichiro may have UZR/150 of 10.9 in right over his career, but since 2007, over 91 games (90 starts), his UZR/150 is only 4.9. Now again, that isn't the largest sample in the world, so it may not tell us the whole story, but it is important to remember that Ichiro is not the same fielder in right today as a 36 year old than he was in 2004 as a 31 year old.
Now take all that into account, and I definitely think the Mariners have a good outfield with above average defenders at every position, however, I don't think it's anywhere as great as you are making it out to be. But in the end, it's definitely a good idea for the Mariners in that ballpark with that rotation to help their defense as much as possible in the outfield.
Now of course this all goes to crap the more Ken Griffey Jr and his ancient kneews have to play in the outfield due to injuries or ineffectiveness with the bats of Chavez or Gutierrez.
Your reasoning about small sample sizes is perfectly logical and accurate, but Aaron's claims are still backed by some solid data. For starters, Guitierrez has started 213 games in RF with a UZR/150 of 24.2, so we know that at the very least he is a phenomenal defensive corner-outfielder.
As for Chavez, he has started 464 games (716 total) in the outfield, with a OF UZR/150 of 13.3 (with most of these innings logged at CF), so I don't know if you can make the small sample size argument here, Adam. That is, especially when you consider that his UZR/150 has not declined in the past 3 years.
As for Ichiro, yes he only had a 4.9 UZR/150 in RF last year in 91 games, but he also had a 14.6 UZR/150 in the more-difficult-to-play CF position last year in 69 games. He's not the fielder he used to be, but I don't think it's a stretch to say he could be expected to save 8-10 runs in right this year. The Mariners saving 50 runs this year in outfield defense seems entirely within a reasonable realm of possibility.
Ok, Gutierrez is definitely a good right fielder, but the corners, even right field is easier than center. Center fielders are expected to cover much more range than right fielders. He may end up being an above average center fielder, but I'm not buying that he's 22 runs better than average over 150 games.
Chavez probably has the best chance of exceeding the positional average, since he was an above average center fielder, and left is less demanding in almost every way. However, I didn't mention this before, but it is very pertinent, Chavez is the most likely of the three to be benched for his lack of bat. One of the reasons that Chavez is so much better in the field than the average left fielder is because the average left fielder is placed in left as a last resort, because their bat is the reason they are playing baseball. Chavez hasn't recorded more than 79 starts, or 390 plate appearances since way back in 2004 for a very bad Expos team. His career OPS+ which compares his On Base + slugging percentages to league average is 75, with the average being 100. That's not good at all. I can believe that he might save 20 runs over the course of 150 games, I just doubt that he'll be given that 150 games in the first place. Instead, I'd give him 12 runs saved over 100 games.
Now Ichiro is a good right fielder, but he's already hit the DL once this season and he just isn't getting any younger. Still, I can buy that he can save 10 or 11 runs.
Now, add that all up, and I think the Mariners outfield saves more in the line of 30 runs, rather than 50, especially when it looks like Ken Griffy Jr. will be the primary reserve for both right and left field. That's nothing to sneeze at, but don't expect any miracles either.
Strategically, I think it's in the Mariners best interest to use this dream outfield for pitchers like Jarrod Washburn, who is an extreme fly ball pitchers and can use the extra help. However, for a guy like Felix Hernandez, who sports both a K rate of of 21.2% and a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.36 on his career, I'd settle for less defense and more bat in the outfield.